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Trump’s tariffs take their toll on UK economic growth (Stage)

27 Mar 2025 Mar 27, 2025

UK 6 min read

Author

Hello,

The Chancellor gave her spring statement this week amid news that market turmoil and US tariffs had caused the OBR to halve its growth forecast for the UK economy from 2% to 1% for 2025. But on the bright side, it has upgraded its growth forecast for next year and every year thereafter.

We also have data in our Market Trends section which shows that the weakening dollar is opening up deal opportunities for European investors.

In other news this week:

Regulatory delays killed Carlyle’s Energean deal
AstraZeneca is splashing $2.5bn on a Chinese R&D hub
Ardonagh is close to securing $2.5bn to fund more M&A

Thanks for reading, and connect with me on LinkedIn if you want to discuss how I can help with your next M&A deal.

Deal Tracker

Our weekly roundup of all the confirmed M&A deals in the UK.

Transaction	Sectors	Buyer
01 Survey Solutions acquired SurvaTec	Business Services	Survey Solutions
02 CVC, Nordic Capital and ADIA acquired Hargreaves Lansdown for £5.4bn	Business Services	CVC, Nordic Capital, ADIA
03 Actis acquired 371-MW Indian solar portfolio from Macquarie fund	Energy	Actis
04 Knighthead Capital acquired a significant ownership stake in the Birmingham Panthers.	Entertainment	Knighthead Capital
05 Sovereign Capital Partners portfolio company Shackleton acquired PK Group	Financial services	Shackleton
06 Smiths Group plc acquired Duc-Pac Corporation for £31.4m	Industrial	Smiths Group plc
07 Lloyd’s broker was acquired by Steadfast Group	Insurance	Steadfast Group
08 Access insurance acquired Ladbrook Insurance	Insurance	Access insurance
09 Great Portland Estates buys property in London for £56m	Real estate	Great Portland Estates

The rumour mill

Salaries and bonuses

Job moves

Market trends

European buyers eye US deals amid currency shifts

A stronger euro and a weaker dollar are making US acquisitions increasingly attractive for European buyers, according to a report in Mergermarket. Ongoing uncertainty over US trade has weighed on the dollar, while the end of Germany’s “debt brake” has bolstered the euro.

The author highlights that deal value had already increased 46% in 2024 compared to 2023, even before the recent moves in the forex market. The US now captures 72% of Europe’s outbound transactions.

Notable deals include UK-based Celnor Group’s purchase of John Turner Consulting and Amcor’s all-stock acquisition of Berry Global Group.

European PE regains strength

After several years of decline following the market boom in 2021, European PE saw a slight uptick in 2024. Deal volumes remained relatively steady rising 3.3% to 3,975 transactions, while total deal value climbed 23% to £285bn – well above pre-pandemic levels.

Falling inflation and interest rate cuts from the ECB and BoE helped restore confidence, driving a shift towards larger deals. The average deal value went up from £60m to £71.7m, with megadeals (>€1bn) up 77% YoY.

According to PwC’s PE Trend Report 2025 , the UK and Ireland retained their position as Europe’s largest buyout market, accounting for 34% of total PE deal value in 2024. A wave of LSE delistings, including the £4.2bn take-private of Darktrace and the £5.3bn delisting of Hargreaves Lansdown, opened doors for PE firms.

Separate data shows that PE buyouts in the UK rose for the third consecutive quarter in Q4 2024, from 411 in Q3 to 433 in Q4. This helped push the UK’s annual transaction volume to 1,571, up from 1,391 in 2023.

Private markets gain traction

And finally, MorningStar has an interesting report on the continuing growth of the UK’s private investment market. Long-term asset funds (LTAFs) are gaining momentum, with the FCA’s registry now listing 23 approved sub-funds.

Schroders Capital leads the charge, with six approved LTAFs. Other major asset managers like Aegon, Aviva, BlackRock, Fidelity, Legal & General, and Willis Towers Watson are leveraging the structure to increase exposure to unlisted assets.

The ever increasing role of LTAFs in wealth and pension markets signals a shift in private market accessibility, potentially driving more deals in alternative assets and PE.